Models to predict bacteremia in the emergency department: a systematic review. / Modelos predictivos de bacteriemia en el servicio de urgencias: revisión sistemática.

OBJECTIVES: Blood cultures are ordered in emergency departments for 15% of patients with suspected infection. The diagnostic yield varies from 2% to 20%. Thirty-day mortality in patients with bacteremia is high, doubling or tripling the rate in patients with the same infection but without bacteremia. Thus, finding an effective model to predict bacteremia that is applicable in emergency departments is an important goal. Shapiro's model is the one traditionally used as a reference internationally. The aim of this systematic review was to compare the predictive power of bacteremia risk models published since 2008, when Shapiro's model first appeared. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We followed the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement, searching in the following databases for articles published between January 2008 and May 31, 2023: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Trip Medical Database, and ClinicalTrials.gov. No language restrictions were specified. The search terms were the following Medical Subject Headings: bacteremia/bacteraemia/blood stream infection, prediction model/clinical prediction rule/risk prediction model, emergencies/emergency/emergency department, and adults. Observational cohort studies analyzing diagnostic yield were included; case-control studies, narrative reviews, and other types of articles were excluded. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to score quality and risk of bias in the included studies. The results were compared descriptively, without meta-analysis. The protocol was included in the PROSPERO register (CRD42023426327). RESULTS: Twenty studies out of a total of 917 were found to meet the inclusion criteria. The included studies together analyzed 33 182 blood cultures, which detected 5074 cases of bacteremia (15.3%). Eleven studies were of high quality, 7 of moderate quality, and 2 of low quality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of Shapiro's model varied from 0.71 to 0.83. Sensitivity was as high as 98%, and specificity ranged from 26% to 69%. Three models with high scores for quality were also supported by both internal and external validation studies: Lee's model (AUC, 0.81; sensitivity 68%; specificity, 81%), the 5MPB-Toledo model (AUC, 0.906 to 0.946), and the MPB-INFURG-SEMES model (AUC, 0.924; sensitivity, 97%; specificity, 76%. CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo and MPB-INFURG-SEMES are useful for assessing the true risk of bacteremia in patients attended in emergency departments.

OBJETIVO: La obtención de hemocultivos (HC) se realiza en el 15% de los pacientes atendidos con sospecha de infección en los servicios de urgencias (SU) con una rentabilidad diagnóstica variable (2-20%). La mortalidad a 30 días de estos pacientes con bacteriemia es elevada, doble o triple que el resto con el mismo proceso. Así, encontrar un modelo predictivo de bacteriemia eficaz y aplicable en los SU sería muy importante. Clásicamente, el modelo de Shapiro ha sido la referencia en todo el mundo. El objetivo de esta revisión sistemática (RS) es comparar la capacidad para predecir bacteriemia en los SU de los distintos modelos predictivos publicados desde el año 2008 (fecha de publicación del modelo de Shapiro). METODO: Se realiza una RS siguiendo la normativa PRISMA en las bases de datos de PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase y ClinicalTrials.gov desde enero de 2008 hasta 31 mayo 2023 sin restricción de idiomas y utilizando una combinación de términos MESH: "Bacteremia/Bacteraemia/Blood Stream Infection", "Prediction Model/Clinical Prediction Rule/Risk Prediction Model", "Emergencies/Emergency/Emergency Department" y "Adults". Se incluyeron estudios de cohortes observacionales (analíticos de rendimiento diagnóstico). Para valorar la calidad del método empleado y el riesgo de sesgos de los artículos incluidos se utilizó la Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). No se incluyeron estudios de casos y controles, revisiones narrativas y en otros tipos de artículos. No se realizaron técnicas de metanálisis, pero los resultados se compararon narrativamente. El protocolo de la RS se registró en PROSPERO (CRD42023426327). RESULTADOS: Se identificaron 917 artículos y se analizaron finalmente 20 que cumplían los criterios de inclusión. Los estudios incluidos contienen 33.182 HC procesados con 5.074 bacteriemias (15,3%). Once estudios fueron calificados de calidad alta, 7 moderada y 2 baja. El ABC-COR conseguida por el modelo de Shapiro varía de 0,71 a 0,83, con sensibilidad (Se) hasta del 98%, con especificidad (Es) (26% a 69%). Para los tres modelos que tienen validación interna y externa y una buena calidad metodológica, el modelo de Lee consigue un ABC-COR de 0,81 con Se: 68% y Es: 81%, el modelo 5MPB-Toledo consigue un ABC-COR entre 0,91 y 0,95, y el MPB-INFURG-SEMES obtiene una ABC-COR de 0,92 con una Se: 97% y Es: 76%. CONCLUSIONES: Los modelos 5MPB-Toledo y MPB-INFURG-SEMES representan herramientas útiles para la estratificación del riesgo real de bacteriemia en los pacientes atendidos en los SU.

Procalcitonin and C-reactive protein: markers in the early diagnosis of anastomotic leak.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of serum procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the early diagnosis of anastomotic leak (AL) in patients undergoing colorectal surgery. METHOD: Diagnostic test in a tertiary care hospital. Patients who did not have preoperative measurements of PCT and CRP were excluded. Those with postoperative infection not related to AL were eliminated. The diagnostic efficacy measures were sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients were analyzed; six had AL (15.4%). PCT and CRP increased on the second postoperative day, only in patients with AL. The cut-off points at the second postoperative day were 1.55 ng/mL for PCT and 11.25 mg/L for CRP. The most efficacious test was PCR at second postoperative day (AUROC: 1.00; Sn: 100%; Sp: 96.7%; PPV: 85.7%; NPV: 100%; LR+: 33.0). CONCLUSIONS: CRP at second postoperative day was the most effective test in the early diagnosis of AL in patients undergoing colorectal surgery, with a cut-off point lower than that reported in the international literature.

OBJETIVO: Determinar la eficacia de la procalcitonina (PCT) y la proteína C reactiva (PCR) séricas en el diagnóstico de fuga anastomótica (FA) en los pacientes sometidos a cirugía colorrectal. MÉTODO: Prueba diagnóstica en un hospital de tercer nivel. Se excluyeron los pacientes que no tuvieron mediciones preoperatorias de PCT y PCR. Se eliminaron los que cursaron con infección posoperatoria no relacionada con FA. Las medidas de eficacia diagnóstica fueron sensibilidad (S), especificidad (E), valores predictivos positivo (VPP) y negativo (VPN), razones de verosimilitud positiva (RV+) y negativa (RV−), y área bajo la curva característica operativa del receptor (AUROC). RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 39 pacientes, de los cuales 6 (15.4%) tuvieron FA. La PCT y la PCR aumentaron al segundo día posoperatorio solo en los pacientes con FA. Los puntos de corte al día 2 fueron 1.55 ng/ml para PCT y 11.25 mg/l para PCR. La prueba más eficaz fue la PCR al día 2 (AUROC: 1.00; S: 100%; E: 96.7%; VPP: 85.7%; VPN: 100%; RV+: 33.0). CONCLUSIONES: La PCR en el segundo día posoperatorio fue la prueba más eficaz en el diagnóstico temprano de FA en los pacientes sometidos a cirugía colorrectal, con un punto de corte inferior a lo reportado en la literatura internacional.

Predictive value of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and interleukin-6 on 30-day mortality in patients with bloodstream infections.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the predictive performance of C-reactive protein (hsCRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at different times points of bloodstream infections (BSI) management. METHODS: The cases were collected from January 2020 to June 2021 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University (n=185). We collected patients' records of hsCRP, PCT, and IL-6 serum levels and calculated the clearance of these biomarkers on day 1, day 3, and day 5 (hsCRP-1, hsCRP-3, hsCRP-5, so do PCT, and IL-6). We analyzed these predictive performances for 30-day mortality with ROC and Logistic regression. The correlation between biomarkers and their clearance rates was performed by a rank correlation method. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality was 11.35% (21/185). Serial serum hsCRP-3, IL-6-3, PCT-1, PCT-3, and PCT-5 were statistically higher in BSI mortality than survivors. Significant predictive ability was found for 30-day mortality with blood culture (BC) reported fungi (OR, 0.033; 95% CI: 0.002-0.535) and PCT-5 (OR, 1.045; 95% CI: 1.013-1.078) levels, respectively. The AUC of PCT-5 levels for 30-day mortality was 0.784 (95% CI 0.678-0.949), and the cut-off value was 5.455ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: PCT-5 is more valuable for the prognosis of 30-day mortality in patients with BSI compared to the other inflammatory biomarkers.

The Guadalajara Declaration on sepsis: emergency physicians' constructive comments on the Surviving Sepsis Campaign's 2021 updated guidelines. / Declaración de Guadalajara: una visión constructiva desde el servicio de urgencias a partir de la Surviving Sepsis Campaign 2021.

TEXT: The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) published a 2021 update of its 2016 recommendations. The update was awaited with great anticipation the world over, especially by emergency physicians. Under the framework of the CIMU 2022 (33rd World Emergency Medicine Conference) in Guadalajara, Mexico in March, emergency physiciansreviewed and analyzed the 2021 SSC guidelines from our specialty's point of view. In this article, the expert reviewers present their consensus on certain key points of most interest in emergency settings at this time. The main aims of the review are to present constructive comments on 10 key points and/or recommendations in the SSC 2021 update and to offer emergency physicians' experience- and evidence-based proposals. Secondarily, the review's recommendations are a starting point for guidelines to detect severe sepsis in emergency department patients and prevent progression, which is ultimate goal of what has become known as the Guadalajara Declaration on sepsis.

TEXTO: En noviembre del año 2021, la Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) publicó una actualización de sus recomendaciones y directrices de 2016. Estas fueron recibidas con una enorme expectativa en todo el mundo, especialmente entre los médicos de urgencias y emergencias (MUE). Recientemente, en el marco del CIMU 2022 (33 Congreso Mundial de Medicina de Urgencias celebrado en marzo de 2022 en Guadalajara ­ México) se ha revisado y analizado, desde la perspectiva del MUE, la Guía SSC de 2021. Los expertos que realizaron esa tarea y también consensuaron algunos de los puntos clave que más interesan y preocupan a los MUE en la actualidad han elaborado este documento. Su objetivo principal es analizar de forma constructiva diez de los puntos clave y recomendaciones de la SSC 2021 para complementarlas con argumentos y propuestas desde la experiencia, evidencia y perspectiva del urgenciólogo. Además, de forma secundaria, pretende ser el punto de partida de la elaboración de las guías para detectar, prevenir la progresión y atender a los pacientes con infección grave y sepsis en urgencias, que supone la meta final de lo que desde la MUE ya se conoce como "la Declaración de Guadalajara".

Procalcitonina y proteína C reactiva séricas como biomarcadores predictivos de dehiscencia de anastomosis intestinal en cirugía colorrectal.

BACKGROUND: There has been recent interest in the seric levels of procalcitonin (PCT) and C reactive protein (PCR) as a marker of intraabdominal infection after a colorrectal surgery, however, the actual literature remains inconclusive. OBJECTIVE: To test if C-Reactive Protein (PCR) and procalcitonin (PCT) as predictive factors of anastomotic leak after colorectal surgery. METHOD: Retrospective cohort, of patients with ileostomy or colostomy who had intestinal transit restitution by general surgeons in our center, from march 2018 to march 2020. RESULTS: We registered 4 (36.4%) anastomotic leaks. We compared median PCR and PCT between group 1 (without anastomotic leak) and group 2 (with anastomotic leak). Median PCT3PO was 4.86 ng/ml in group 1 vs 13.7 ng/ml in group 2, and PCT5PO was 1.3071 ng/ml vs 6.74 ng/ml (DS: 5.04 vs. 11.53 and 0.779 vs. 10.44). Median PCR3PO and PCR5PO was 194.7 mg/l in group 1 vs 100.97 mg/l in group 2, and 159.8 mg/l vs 65.67 mg/l, (DS: 88.78 vs. 82.01 and 94.77 vs. 58.009). CONCLUSIONS: Persistent higher levels of seric PCR and PCT at 3rd and 5th postoperative day could be an anastomotic leackage. This biomarkers might be added as additional criteria of discharge.

ANTECEDENTES: La medición sérica de procalcitonina (PCT) y proteína C reactiva (PCR) como marcadores de infección intraabdominal posterior a la cirugía colorrectal ha tomado interés en los recientes años, sin embargo, la literatura que existe en la actualidad no es concluyente. OBJETIVO: Evaluar los biomarcadores séricos de inflamación procalcitonina (PCT) y proteína C reactiva (PCR) como factores predictores para dehiscencia de anastomosis (DA) en cirugía colorrectal. MÉTODO: Cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con cirugía abdominal, con ileostomía o colostomía, que fueron protocolizados para restitución del tránsito intestinal por el departamento de cirugía general en un hospital de tercer nivel, de marzo de 2018 a marzo de 2020. RESULTADOS: La DA ocurrió en 4 (36.4%) de 11 pacientes. Se comparó la media de dos grupos: el grupo 1 sin DA frente al grupo 2 que presentaron DA. Las concentraciones séricas de PCT3PO fueron de 4.86 ng/ml en el grupo 1 y 13.7 ng/ml en el grupo 2, y las de PCT5PO fueron de 1.3071 ng/ml y 6.74 ng/ml, respectivamente (desviación estándar [DE]: 5.04 vs. 11.53 y 0.779 vs. 10.44). Las concentraciones séricas de PCR3PO fueron de 194.7 mg/l en el grupo 1 y 100.97 mg/l en el grupo 2, y las de PCR5PO fueron de 159.8 mg/l y 65.67 mg/l, respectivamente (DE: 88.78 vs. 82.01 y 94.77 vs. 58.009). CONCLUSIONES: La persistencia de valores elevados den PCR y PCT séricas al tercer y quinto día posoperatorios pudieran demostrar DA. Estos marcadores podrían agregarse como criterio de egreso.

Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in patients with urinary tract infections in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the usefulness of a new predictive model of bacteremia (5MPB-Toledo) in patients treated for urinary tract infection (UTI) in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered for patients with UTIs in 65 Spanish ED from November 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The diagnostic performance was calculated with the chosen cut-off point for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 1,499 blood cultures were evaluated. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 277 (18.5%). The remaining 1,222 cultures (81.5%) were negative. Ninety-four (6.3%) were considered contaminated. The model's area under the ROC curve was 0.937 (95% CI, 0.926-0.949). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥5 points achieved 97.47% (95% CI, 94.64-98.89) sensitivity, 76.68% (95% CI, 74.18-79.00) specificity, 48.65% (95% CI, 44.42-52.89) positive predictive value and 99.26% (95% CI, 98.41-99.67) negative predictive value. CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients with UTIs who visit the ED.

Procalcitonina sérica como marcador de la función del injerto en el postrasplante renal inmediato

Contexto la procalcitonina (PCT) podría ser útil en la evaluación de la función del injerto renal (IR) en el postrasplante inmediato, ya que sus niveles se incrementan posterior a la elevación de citocinas inflamatorias (IL-6, TNF-ß) durante eventos de disfunción renal. Objetivo determinar la asociación de la PCT sérica con la función del injerto renal en el periodo postrasplante inmediato. Metodología cohorte retrospectiva de septiembre del 2018 a abril del 2019 en la División de Nefrología y Trasplantes, del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente (CMNO), del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS). Se incluyeron 62 receptores de trasplante renal de donante vivo (DV) y fallecido (DF) con determinación de PCT antes del séptimo día del TR y el registro de eventos de disfunción temprana del injerto (DTI), comparados con pacientes sin DTI (sDTI). Resultados los receptores con DTI presentaron niveles más altos de PCT (13,90, 3,90, 1,22 ng/mL) comparado con el grupo sin DTI (0,32, 0,31 y 0,22 ng/ml) en los días 1, 3 y 5 respectivamente; p < 0,05. Conclusiones la PCT es un marcador biológico asociado a DTI en el postrasplante renal inmediato.

Background Procalcitonin (PCT) could be useful for evaluation of the renal allograft (RG) in the immediate post-transplant since its levels increase after elevation of the inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-ß) during events of renal failure. Purpose Our objective was to determine the association of serum PCT with the function of the RG in the immediate post-transplant. Methodology A retrospective cohort from September 2018- April 2019 in the National Western Medical Center of the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), was performed. Sixty-two recipients of living donor (LD) and deceased donor (DD) renal transplant (RT) with PCT evaluation before the seventh days of RT were included; and, events of early renal allograft failure (EAF) were recorded and compared to patients no EAF (nEAF). Results The recipients with EAF presented with higher PCT levels (13.90, 3.90, 1.22 ng/mL) compared to the nEAF group (0.32, 0.31, and 0.22 ng/ml) on days 1, 3, and 5, respectively (p < 0.05). Conclusions The PCT is a biological marker associated with EAF in the immediate post-transplant.

Ability of lactate, procalcitonin, and criteria defining sepsis to predict 30-day mortality, bacteremia, and microbiologically confirmed infection in patients with infection suspicion treated in emergency departments. / Capacidad del lactato, procalcitonina y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, bacteriemia o infección confirmada microbiológicamente en los pacientes atendidos por sospecha de infección en urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate lactate, procalcitonin, criteria defining systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and the Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and compare their ability to predict 30-day mortality, infection with microbiologic confirmation, and true bacteremia in patients treated for infection in hospital emergency departments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective multicenter observational cohort study. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients aged 18 years or older attended in 71 Spanish emergency departments from October 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Each model's predictive power was analyzed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and predetermined decision points were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 4439 patients with a mean (SD) age of 18 years were studied; 2648 (59.7%) were men and 459 (10.3%) died within 30 days. True bacteremia was detected in 899 (20.25%), and microbiologic confirmation was on record for 2057 (46.3%). The model that included the qSOFA score (2) and lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L; 95% CI, 0.711-0.765 mmol/L) proved to be the best predictor of 30-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901). The model that included the SIRS score (2) and procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) proved to be the best predictor of true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation, with an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.698-0.728). CONCLUSION: A qSOFA score of 2 or more plus lactate concentration (0.738 mmol/L) predict 30-day mortality better than the combination of a SIRS score of 2 or more and procalcitonin concentration. A SIRS score of 2 or more plus procalcitonin concentration (0.51 ng/mL) predict true bacteremia and microbiologic confirmation.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar y comparar la capacidad del lactato, la procalcitonina (PCT) y de los criterios definitorios de sepsis (síndrome de respuesta inflamatoria sistémica ­SRIS­ y del quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment ­qSOFA­) para predecir mortalidad a 30 días, o infección ­con confirmación microbiológica o bacteriemia verdadera (BV)­ en los pacientes que acuden al servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH) por un episodio de sospecha de infección. METODO: Estudio observacional de cohortes, multicéntrico, prospectivo. Se incluyó por oportunidad a pacientes 18 años atendidos por sospecha de infección en 71 SUH españoles desde el 01/10/2019 al 31/03/2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y puntos de decisión predeterminados. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 4.439 pacientes con edad media de 67 (18) años, 2.648 (59,7%) fueron hombres, fallecieron a los 30 días 459 (10,3%), se consideraron BV 899 (20,2%) y se consiguió confirmación microbiológica en 2.057 (46,3%). Para la mortalidad a 30 días la mejor ABC-COR fue la obtenida con el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l con un ABC-COR de 0,738 (0,711-0,765). Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica el mejor rendimiento se obtuvo con el modelo de SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml, con un ABC-COR de 0,890 (0,880-0,901) y 0,713 (0,698-0,728), respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: Para la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días, el qSOFA 2 es superior al SRIS 2 y el mejor rendimiento lo consigue el modelo qSOFA 2 más lactato 2 mmol/l. Para predecir BV y confirmación microbiológica, la PCT es superior al lactato y el mejor rendimiento lo obtiene el modelo SRIS 2 más PCT 0,51 ng/ml.

Utilidad del modelo 5MPB-Toledo para predecir bacteriemia en el paciente anciano / Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in the elderly patient

Resumen Objetivo: Analizar la utilidad del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en el servicio de urgencias (SU). Material y Método: Estudio observacional prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en pacientes mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en 66 SU españoles desde el 1 de diciembre de 2019 hasta el 30 de abril de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico de los puntos de corte (PC) del modelo elegido con los cálculos de la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo. Resultados: Se incluyeron 2.401 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos, se consideró como bacteriemia verdadera a 579 (24,11%) y como HC negativo a 1.822 (75,89%). Entre los negativos, 138 (5,74%) se consideraron contaminados. Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), moderado (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-8 puntos) riesgo, con una probabilidad de bacteriemia de 1,2%, 18,1% y 80,7%, respectivamente. El ABC-COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,908 (IC 95%: 0,897-0,924). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo, considerando un PC ≥ 5 puntos, obtiene una sensibilidad de 94% (IC 95%:92-96), especificidad de 77% (IC 95%:76-79) y un valor predictivo negativo de 97% (IC 95%:96-98). Conclusión: El modelo 5MPB-Toledo es de utilidad para predecir bacteriemia en los mayores de 65 años atendidos en el SU por un episodio de infección.

Abstract Objective: To analyse a risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. Patients and Methods: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 66 Spanish ED for patients aged older 65 years seen from December 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Results: A total of 2.401 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 579 (24.11%). The remaining 1.822 cultures (75.89%) wered negative. And, 138 (5.74%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.2%, 18.1%, and 80.7%, respectively. The model´s area under the receiver ope rating characteristic curve was 0.908 (95% CI, 0.897-0.924). The prognostic performance with a model´s cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94% (95% CI: 92-96) sensitivity, 77% (95% CI: 76-79) specificity, and negative predictive value of 97% (95% CI: 96-98). Conclusion: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments due to infections.

Papel da mudança nos níveis de marcadores inflamatórios pós drenagem na previsão de resultado em colangite aguda / Role of change in the levels of inflammatory markers post drainage in predicting outcome in acute cholangitis

ABSTRACT Background: Acute cholangitis (AC) is a gastro-intestinal emergency associated with significant mortality. Role of change in the levels of inflammatory markers post drainage in predicting outcome in acute cholangitis is uncertain. Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of changes in C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin levels after biliary drainage in relation to outcomes (survival or mortality) at 1 month. Methods A prospective observational study of consecutive adults presenting with AC was performed. At admission and at 48 hours post biliary drainage, procalcitonin and CRP were sent. Results: Between August 2020 till December 2020 we recruited 72 consecutive patients of AC. The median age of the patients was 55 years (range 43-62 years) and 42 (58.33%) were females. Although the delta change in serum procalcitonin (P value<0.001) and CRP (P value<0.001) was significant, it had no bearing on the outcome. Altered sensorium and INR were independently associated with mortality at 1 month. The 30-day mortality prediction of day 0 procalcitonin was measured by receiver operating characteristic analysis which resulted in an area under the curve of 0.697 with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of 0.545-0.849. The optimal cut-off of procalcitonin would be 0.57ng/mL with a sensitivity and specificity of 80% and 60% respectively to predict mortality. Conclusion: Change in serum procalcitonin and CRP levels at 48 hours post drainage although significant, had no impact on the outcome of acute cholangitis.

RESUMO Contexto: A colangite aguda (CA) é uma emergência gastro-intestinal associada à significativa mortalidade. O papel da mudança nos níveis de marcadores inflamatórios pós drenagem na previsão do desfecho em CA é incerto. Objetivo: Avaliar o valor preditivo das alterações nos níveis de proteína reativa C (PCR) e procalcitonina após drenagem biliar em relação aos desfechos (sobrevida ou mortalidade) em um mês. Métodos Realizou-se estudo observacional prospectivo de adultos consecutivos que apresentam CA. Na admissão e após 48 horas de drenagem biliar, foram analisadas a procalcitonina e a PCR. Resultados Entre agosto de 2020 e dezembro de 2020, foram recrutados 72 pacientes consecutivos de CA. A idade mediana dos pacientes foi de 55 anos (faixa de 43 a 62 anos) e 42 (58,33%) do sexo feminino. Embora a variação delta no soro procalcitonina (valor P<0,001) e PCR (valor P<0,001) tenha sido significativa, não houve influência sobre o resultado. Sensório alterado e INR foram independentemente associados à mortalidade em 1 mês. A previsão de mortalidade de 30 dias no dia 0 da procalcitonina foi medida pela análise característica operacional receptora que resultou em uma área sob a curva de 0,697 com intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%) de 0,545-0,849. O corte ideal de procalcitonina seria de 0,57ng/mL com sensibilidade e especificidade de 80% e 60% respectivamente para prever a mortalidade. Conclusão: A mudança nos níveis de procalcitonina sérica e PCR em 48 horas após a drenagem, embora significativa, não teve impacto no resultado da colangite aguda.

Procalcitonin concentration in the emergency department predicts 30-day mortality in COVID-19 better than the lymphocyte count, the neutrophil-tolymphocyte ratio, or the C-reactive protein level. / Procalcitonina es superior a recuento linfocitario, índice neutrófilo/linfocito y proteína C reactiva para la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días de pacientes con COVID-19 en el servicio de urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: Although many demographic and clinical predictors of mortality have been studied in relation to COVID-19, little has been reported about the prognostic utility of inflammatory biomarkers. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study. All patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 treated in a hospital emergency department were included consecutively if baseline measurements of the following biomarkers were on record: lymphocyte counts, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio NRL, and C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels. We analyzed associations between the biomarkers and all-cause 30-day mortality using Cox regression models and dose-response curves. RESULTS: We included 896 patients, 151 (17%) of whom died within 30 days. The median (interquartile range) age was 63 (51-78) years, and 494 (55%) were men. NLR, CRP and PCT levels at ED presentation were higher, while lymphocyte counts were lower, in patients who died compared to those who survived (P .001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves revealed the PCT concentration (0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.83) to be a better predictor of 30-day mortality than the lymphocyte count (0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.74; P .001), the NLR (0.74; 95% CI, 0.69-0.78; P = .03), or the CRP level (0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.76; P .001). The proposed PCT concentration decision points for use in emergency department case management were 0.06 ng/L (negative) and 0.72 ng/L (positive). These cutoffs helped classify risk in 357 patients (40%). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the PCT concentration had the strongest association with mortality. CONCLUSION: PCT concentration in the emergency department predicts all-cause 30-day mortality in patients with COVID-19 better than other inflammatory biomarkers.

OBJETIVO: Existen múltiples variables demográficas y clínicas predictivas de mortalidad en pacientes con COVID-19. Sin embargo, hay menos información sobre el valor pronóstico de los biomarcadores inflamatorios. METODO: Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo. Se incluyeron de forma consecutiva todos los pacientes con COVID-19, confirmado por laboratorio, atendidos en un servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH) y con valor basal de los siguientes biomarcadores: recuento linfocitario, índice neutrófilo/linfocito (INL), proteína C reactiva (PCR) y procalcitonina (PCT). La relación entre los biomarcadores y la mortalidad total a 30 días se analizó mediante una regresión de Cox y gráficos de dosis-respuesta. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 896 pacientes, 151 (17%) fallecieron en los primeros 30 días. La mediana de edad fue de 63 años (51-78) y 494 (55%) eran hombres. El valor de INL, PCR y PCT fue mayor, mientras que el recuento linfocitario fue menor, en los pacientes que fallecieron respecto a los que sobrevivieron (p 0,001). La PCT fue superior al recuento linfocitario, INL y PCR en la predicción de mortalidad a 30 días (ABC 0,79 [IC 95%: 0,75-0,83] vs 0,70 [IC 95%: 0,65-0,74], p 0,001; 0,74 [IC 95%: 0,69-0,78], p = 0,03; y 0,72 [IC 95%: 0,68-0,76], p 0,001). Los puntos de decisión de PCT propuestos, 0,06 ng/l para exclusión y 0,72 ng/l para inclusión de muerte a 30 días, podrían facilitar la toma de decisiones en urgencias. Hubo 357 pacientes (40%) con valores de PCT en estas categorías. El análisis multivariable mostró una mayor asociación con la mortalidad para PCT que en los otros biomarcadores estudiados. CONCLUSIONES: PCT es el biomarcador con mejor capacidad para predecir mortalidad a 30 días por cualquier causa en pacientes con COVID-19 valorados en un SUH.

Surgical Management of Infected Pancreatic Necrosis. Case Series in a Quaternary Care Hospital in Bogotá, Colombia, 2014-2021 / Manejo quirúrgico de la necrosis pancreática infectada. Serie de casos en un hospital de cuarto nivel en Bogotá, Colombia, 2014-2021

Abstract Introduction: Pancreatitis is a frequent pathology in our environment, mostly related to benign biliary pathology. It can progress to severe forms in 10-15 % of cases, where the pancreatic tissue becomes necrotic and forms large collections with risk of infection. We do not have epidemiological data about the incidence or management of this complication in Colombia. Aim: This study aims to study the prevalence of infected pancreatic necrosis and describe the cases identified in a quaternary care hospital between 2014 and 2021. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional observational study. We analyzed records of patients diagnosed with stage 2 pancreatitis. Those cases with infected pancreatic necrosis that underwent debridement plus laparoscopic and open surgical drainage at Hospital Universitario Mayor Méderi in Bogotá, Colombia, between January 2014 and January 2021 were studied. A convenience sampling was carried out without calculating the sample size. We collected the patients' demographic and clinical variables, performing a descriptive statistical analysis in Excel. Qualitative variables were described through absolute and relative frequencies, while quantitative ones were expressed through measures of central tendency and dispersion based on their distribution. Results: We analyzed 1020 episodes of pancreatitis, finding pancreatic necrosis in 30 patients, i.e., a period prevalence of 2.9 %. Of the patients, 83 % (n = 25) underwent open drainage, with 48 % (n = 12) mortality. About laparoscopic management, the reduction in postoperative organ failure was 40 % (n = 2), with a 30 % shorter hospital stay than the open drainage approach. Those patients with a level of procalcitonin (PCT) lower than 1.8 ng/mL had less mortality. Conclusions: The laparoscopic approach shows promising results regarding final morbidity and mortality.

Resumen Introducción: la pancreatitis es una patología frecuente en nuestro medio, mayormente relacionada con la patología biliar benigna. Esta puede progresar a formas severas en 10 %-15 % de los casos, en donde el tejido pancreático se necrosa y forma grandes colecciones, con riesgo de infección. En Colombia no conocemos los datos epidemiológicos acerca de la incidencia de este tipo de complicaciones, ni del manejo de las mismas. Objetivo: este estudio tiene como objetivo estudiar la prevalencia de la necrosis pancreática infectada y describir los casos identificados en un hospital de alto nivel de complejidad entre 2014 y 2021. Métodos: estudio observacional de corte transversal. Se analizaron los registros de pacientes diagnosticados con pancreatitis en segunda etapa. Se estudiaron aquellos casos que presentaron necrosis pancreática infectada y se sometieron a desbridamiento más drenaje quirúrgico por vía laparoscópica y abierta en el Hospital Universitario Mayor Méderi de Bogotá, Colombia, entre enero de 2014 y enero de 2021. Se realizó un muestreo por conveniencia, sin cálculo de tamaño de muestra. Se recolectaron variables demográficas y clínicas de los pacientes. Se realizó un análisis estadístico descriptivo de las variables obtenidas en Excel. Las variables cualitativas se describieron a través de frecuencias absolutas y relativas; mientras que las cuantitativas se expresaron mediante medidas de tendencia central y de dispersión en función de su distribución. Resultados: se analizaron 1020 episodios de pancreatitis y se evidenció necrosis pancreática en 30 pacientes, es decir, una prevalencia de período de 2,9 %. De los pacientes, 83 % (n = 25) se llevó a drenajes por vía abierta, con un 48 % (n = 12) de mortalidad. En relación con el manejo por vía laparoscópica, la reducción en la falla orgánica posoperatoria fue de 40 % (n = 2), con un 30 % menos de duración en la estancia hospitalaria, comparado con la vía abierta. Aquellos pacientes que presentaron un nivel de procalcitonina (PCT) menor de 1,8 ng/mL tuvieron menos mortalidad. Conclusiones: el abordaje laparoscópico muestra resultados prometedores en cuanto a la morbilidad y mortalidad final observada.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0-2 points, intermediate risk by 3-5 points, and high risk by 6-8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

Evolución de los niveles séricos de proteína C-reactiva y procalcitonina tras resección hepática / Evolution of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin serum levels after hepatic resection

Resumen Objetivo: Evaluar la evolución de los niveles séricos de proteína C-reactiva y procalcitonina tras resección hepática. Materiales y Método: Estudio observacional prospectivo, con pacientes con diferentes tipos de resección hepática, sin infección ni complicaciones mayores posoperatorias. Los niveles de proteína C-reactiva y procalcitonina se midieron el día anterior a la cirugía y diariamente, hasta el 7° día, o hasta el alta, lo primero que ocurriera. Resultados: Se incluyeron 42 pacientes. Los niveles de procalcitonina, a las 24 h, correlacionaban significativamente con la duración de la operación (p = 0,04). A las 48 h, los niveles de proteína C-reactiva fueron mayores en las resecciones hepáticas no lobares que en las lobares (p = 0,049). A las 24 h, los niveles de procalcitonina aumentaron más en las hepatectomías mayores que en las menores (p = 0,017). Los niveles de procalcitonina fueron significativamente menores en los pacientes con abordaje laparoscópico en los 4 primeros días. Conclusión: La resección hepática produce un aumento de los niveles séricos de proteína C-reactiva y procalcitonina, pero con menor intensidad si el abordaje es laparoscópico. Los niveles séricos de proteína C-reactiva tienden a ser mayores en las hepatectomías menos extensas, mientras que los de procalcitonina tienden a ser mayores en las más extensas.

Aim: To evaluate the postoperative evolution of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin after hepatic resection. Materials and Method: Prospective observational study, including patients with different types of hepatic resection, without infectious or major postoperative complications. Procalcitonin and C-reactive protein serum levels were measured on the day prior to surgery and every day after surgery until the seventh postoperative day. Results: Forty-two patients were included. There was a significant correlation between procalcitonin levels at 24 hours after surgery and the overall length of surgery (p = 0.04). C-reactive protein was higher in nonlobar hepatectomies than in lobar hepatectomies 48 hours after surgery (p = 0.049). Procalcitonin was higher in major hepatectomies than in minor hepatectomies 24 hours after surgery (p = 0.017). Procalcitonin levels were significantly lower in patients with laparoscopic approach in the first four postoperative days. Conclusion: Hepatic resection increases the serum levels of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin, but with less intensity if the approach is laparoscopic. C-reactive protein levels tend to be higher in less extensive hepatectomies and procalcitonin levels tend to be higher in more extensive resections.

Validation of a predictive model for bacteraemia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients seen in emergency departments due to infections. / Validación del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los pacientes atendidos en el servicio de urgencias por infección.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a simple risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in patients seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. METHODS: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 74 Spanish ED for adults (aged 18 or older) seen from from October 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 3.843 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 839 (21.83%). The remaining 3.004 cultures (78.17%) were negative. Among the negative, 172 (4.47%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.5%, 16.8%, and 81.6%, respectively. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.916-0.948). The prognostic performance with a model's cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94.76% (95% CI: 92.97-96.12) sensitivity, 81.56% (95% CI: 80.11-82.92) specificity, and negative predictive value of 98.24% (95% CI: 97.62-98.70). CONCLUSION: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients attended in hospital emergency departments for infection.

Comportamiento de Procalcitonina en pacientes con COVID-19 grave, sin foco infeccioso bacteriano, ingresados en Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos del Hospital Militar Central, en los meses de mayo-julio de 2020 / Behavior of Procalcitonin in patients with severe COVID-19, without bacterial infection focus, admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of the Central Military Hospital, in the months of May-July 2020

Introducción: Desde el inicio de la pandemia de COVID-19 en diciembre de 2019, el virus del Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Severo Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ha provocado la muerte de muchos pacientes a lo largo de todo el mundo. Debido a la heterogeneidad de la enfermedad, es necesario identificar de forma temprana pacientes potencialmente complicables para disminuir la morbilidad y mortalidad, por lo cual los objetivos del presente trabajo son caracterizar los aspectos clínicos más importantes de los pacientes con COVID-19 y realizar una comparación entre los niveles iniciales de procalcitonina, con el estado de gravedad y la evolución clínica. También se pretende hacer comparaciones entre pacientes con COVID-19 grave sin procesos bacterianos concomitantes y las concentraciones de procalcitonina reportada, además describir cifras de mortalidad en este grupo de población. Materiales y Métodos: se obtuvo información a través de la revisión de expedientes clínicos. El estudio es Observacional, Descriptivo, de tipo Transversal, tomando como población a pacientes que presentaron neumonía viral grave por SARS-CoV-2, ingresados en el servicio de Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos, que no presentaban de forma concomitante sobreinfección bacteriana o micótica. Se recabó información sobre datos personales, comorbilidades, estado físico y exámenes de laboratorio para realizar descripciones de las diferencias respecto a los niveles de procalcitonina y el desenlace de los pacientes. Resultados: se evidenció alta mortalidad en la población ingresada, además los pacientes con COVID-19 grave sin procesos infecciosos bacterianos pueden presentar elevaciones de procalcitonina, se evidenció además que los pacientes con COVID-19 grave pueden no presentar elevaciones de marcadores inflamatorios a pesar de que su condición clínica es grave. Conclusiones: se evidenció tendencia a la elevación de niveles de procalcitonina en pacientes con enfermedad grave, sin embargo, no se pudo validar estadísticamente esta observación. Debe sospecharse riesgo aumentado de mortalidad y de daño multiorgánico en pacientes con COVID-19 grave que presentan procalcitonina elevada, si no hay foco infeccioso bacteriano concomitante. Elevaciones de los demás reactantes de fase aguda pueden ser poco confiables por lo que la evaluación clínica es la más importante para determinar complicaciones.

Procalcitonin as an early marker in the detection of anastomotic intestinal leak in a Universitary Hospital of Bogotá / Procalcitonina como um marcador precoce na detecção de vazamento anastomótico intestinal em um Hospital Universitário de Bogotá

ABSTRACT Introduction: Anastomotic leakage is a complication of intestinal anastomosis, with an incidence of 2%-7% in centers of experience. To be able to achieve an early detection, serological markers such as Procalcitonin were included. Methods: Descriptive retrospective cohort study of patients taken to colorectal surgery with intestinal anastomosis, the objective is to estimate association between procalcitonin (≥2 ng/dl) as an early inflammatory marker and anastomotic leakage in a Coloproctological Service of a highest level of health care hospital, between September 2017 and January 2019. Results: Cohort of 237 patients, 51% women (18-89 years), with multiple comorbidities in 81% of patients, colon cancer was the most operated pathology (53.1%). Laparoscopic approach was the most applied 60.34%, colorectal anastomosis was the most frequently performed (47.26%). Ileocolic anastomosis presented a higher frequency (43.75%-n:7) of dehiscence. Anastomotic leakage was associated with a serum procalcitonin positive 3 days postoperatively (p-value <0.05). Patients with a positive result had 4.28 times higher risk of presenting an anastomotic leak, compared to this risk in those patients with negative results 3 days postoperatively, this association was statistically significant 95% CI (1.34-14.16); p value <0.05. Conclusion: Anastomotic leakage is a source of morbidity in patients taken to intestinal anastomosis. It's necessary to guarantee an early diagnosis of this complication, prevent abscesses and secondary peritonitis, providing adequate treatment and even reducing the associated mortality. We recommend including the procalcitonin in the assessment protocol on the third day of postoperative follow-up.

RESUMO Introdução: O vazamento anastomótico é uma complicação da anastomose intestinal, com uma incidência de 2% a 7% em centros com experiência. Para conseguir uma detecção precoce, foram incluídos marcadores sorológicos como a Procalcitonina. Métodos: Estudo de coorte descritivo e retrospectivo de pacientes submetidos à cirurgia colorretal com anastomose intestinal, cujo objetivo é estimar a associação entre os níveis de procalcitonina (≥ 2 ng/dL) como marcador inflamatório precoce e vazamento anastomótico em um Serviço de Coloproctologia de alto nível de atenção à saúde hospitalar, entre setembro de 2017 a janeiro de 2019. Resultados: Coorte de 237 pacientes, 51% mulheres (18−9 anos), com múltiplas comorbidades em 81% dos pacientes, sendo o câncer de cólon a patologia mais operada (53,1%). A abordagem laparoscópica foi a mais utilizada, em 60,34%, e a anastomose colorretal foi a mais frequentemente realizada (47,26%). A anastomose ileocólica apresentou a maior frequência (43,75%, n = 7) de deiscências. O vazamento anastomótico foi associado a procalcitonina sérica positiva 3 dias após a cirurgia (p < 0,05). Pacientes com resultado positivo tinham um risco 4,28 vezes maior de apresentar vazamento anastomótico, em comparação com esse mesmo risco nos pacientes com resultado negativo 3 dias após a cirurgia, sendo essa associação estatisticamente significativa, (IC95%:1,34−14,16); p < 0,05. Conclusão: O vazamento anastomótico é fonte de morbidade em pacientes encaminhados para anastomose intestinal. É necessário garantir o diagnóstico precoce desta complicação, prevenir abscessos e peritonites secundárias, proporcionando tratamento adequado e até mesmo reduzindo a mortalidade associada. Recomendamos incluir a procalcitonina no protocolo de avaliação no terceiro dia de seguimento pós-operatório.

Kinetics of procalcitonin in infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria / Cinética de procalcitonina en infecciones causadas por bacterias multirresistentes

Resumen La cinética de la procalcitonina es útil para reducir la duración de la antibioticoterapia en pacientes críticos, pero no se analizó su rol en infecciones por gérmenes multirresistentes. Se realizó un estudio observacional retrospectivo, analizando las curvas de procalcitonina de pacientes con neumonías asociadas a ventilación mecánica (NAVM) y bacteriemias asociadas a catéter (BAC) con rescate bacteriano durante el período 1/11/16 a 1/7/19. Se estudiaron 16 pacientes con infección por gérmenes sensibles (10 BAC y 6 NAVM) y 10 por gérmenes multirresistentes (10 BAC y 10 NAVM). Los pacientes con BAC generadas por gérmenes multirresistentes presentaron valores de procalcitonina mayores que los pacientes con BAC por gérmenes sensibles: (39 ± 30 μg/l vs. 10.7 ± 11 μg/l, p = 0.02). Los pacientes con NAVM generada por gérmenes sensibles y multirresistentes presentaron valores de procalcitonina similares. El descenso de procalcitonina a niveles 80% menores al valor máximo o menores a 0.5 μg/l (con tratamiento antibiótico efectivo) fue más veloz en pacientes con infección por gérmenes sensibles (5 ± 1.8 días vs. 7.2 ± 2.9 días, p = 0.03). En las infecciones por gérmenes multirresistentes, la respuesta inflamatoria medida por procalcitonina fue más intensa y prolongada, aun con un tratamiento antibiótico efectivo. Sin embargo, el descenso se produjo antes de que finalizaran los esquemas antibióticos convencionales. Por este motivo, se considera necesario estudiar la potencial utilidad de protocolos antibióticos guiados por procalcitonina en pacientes con infecciones por gérmenes multirresistentes para reducir la exposición a antibióticos.

Abstract Procalcitonin guidance stimulates a reduction in the duration of antibiotic treatment in critically ill patients with a presumed bacterial infection, but its role in infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria has not been sufficiently explored. In this retrospective observational study, we analyzed procalcitonin curves of 32 patients with culture-confirmed ventilation-associated pneumonia (VAP) and catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSI) occurred during the period 11/1/2016 to 7/1/2019. Sixteen infections were caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria (10 CRBSI and 6 VAP) and other 16 by sensitive bacteria (10 CRBSI and 6 VAP). CRBSI generated by multidrug-resistant bacteria elicited significantly higher procalcitonin levels than CRBSI infections caused by sensitive bacteria (39 ± 30 μg/l vs. 10.7 ± 11 μg/l, p = 0.02). Patients with VAP caused by sensitive and multidrug-resistant bacteria elicited similar procalcitonin levels. The time to a decrease in procalcitonin level to less than 80% of the peak value or less than 0.5 μg/l upon effective antibiotic treatment was 7.2 ± 2.9 days in multidrug-resistant bacteria vs. 5 ± 1.8 days in sensitive bacteria (p = 0.03). In multidrug-resistant bacteria, the inflammatory response measured by procalcitonin is stronger and longer, even with an effective antibiotic treatment. However, the decline occurs before the conventional antibiotic scheme is completed. The potential application of antibiotic protocols guided by procalcitonin to these groups of patients grants further studies aimed to reduce exposure to antibiotics in critical multidrug-resistant infections.

Predictive biomarkers for complicated acute appendicitis: A prospective Ecuadorian study.

AIM: The aim of the study was to determine the usefulness of known biomarkers as pre-operative predictors of complicated acute appendicitis (CAA) and perforated appendicitis (PA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was an observational, analytic, cross-sectional, and prospective study at Hospital Teodoro Maldonado Carbo (August 2016-December 2017). Evaluated biomarkers: white blood cells count, neutrophil percentage (N%), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, glucose, total bilirubin, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin (PCT). The statistical analysis was performed by means of the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve estimation. Biomarkers' cutoff point was identified using Youden's index. Sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive value (NPV) (positive predictive value [PPV] and NPV) were estimated. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-eight cases were included (median age 30 years, 44% female), 70 cases (54%) corresponded to CAA (PA 38/70). N% and PCT obtained an AUROC of 78% and 80% for CAA (PA 76% and 81%), respectively. A N% > 78.1% predicted CAA with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82%, 62%, 72%, and 72% (> 74.9%, PA: 94%, 53%, 46%, and 96%), respectively. PCT > 0.14 ng/dL predicted CAA with sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 69%, 79%, 80%, and 68% (PA: 84%, 69%, 53%, and 91%). CONCLUSION: The N% and PCT represent useful pre-operative biomarkers for discarding PA when an acute appendicitis is suspected.

OBJETIVO: Determinar la utilidad de conocidos biomarcadores como predictores de apendicitis aguda complicada (AAC) y perforada (AP). MÉTODO: Estudio observacional, analítico, transversal, de recuperación prospectiva, realizado en el Hospital Teodoro Maldonado Carbo (agosto de 2016 a diciembre de 2017). Biomarcadores evaluados: glóbulos blancos, porcentaje de neutrófilos (%N), índice neutrófilo/linfocito, glucosa, bilirrubina total, proteína C reactiva y procalcitonina (PCT). El análisis estadístico se realizó mediante estimación del área bajo la curva ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics). Se individualizó el valor de corte mediante el índice de Youden. Se estimaron la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo (VPP) y el valor predictivo negativo (VPN). RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 128 casos (mediana de edad 30 años, 44% mujeres), de los que 70 (54%) correspondieron a AAC (AP 38/70). El %N y la PCT obtuvieron un área ROC del 78% y el 80% para AAC (AP 76% y 81%), respectivamente. Un %N > 78.1% predijo AAC con una sensibilidad, una especificidad, un VPP y un VPN del 82%, 62%, 72% y 72% (> 74.9%, AP: 94%, 53%, 46% y 96%). Una PCT > 0.14 ng/dl predijo AAC con una sensibilidad, una especificidad, un VPP y un VPN del 69%, 79%, 80% y 68% (AP: 84%, 69%, 53% y 91%). CONCLUSIÓN: El %N y la PCT constituyen biomarcadores útiles en el descarte de AP cuando se sospecha una apendicitis aguda.